Can Voters Connect Elections to Policy?

Do voters have the capacity to connect elections to policy implications? I show that when elections signal potential threats to policies people depend on, citizens adjust their behavior to hedge against the possible erosion of rights that they value. Using administrative records on 500 million firearm background checks and a novel dataset of nearly 11 million marriages across the United States, I find that when a party associated with restricting a valued right wins the presidency, people lock-in access before new restrictions arrive. People buy guns to preempt restrictions associated with Democratic administrations; same-sex couples marry before a conservative government can rescind protections for marriage equality. Political expectations, absent as-yet realized policy change, are sufficient to drive costly, measurable behavior. These findings suggest policy is an important part of how voters interpret elections.