Published and Accepted
2026
Sensitive places, persistent violence: Effectiveness of “Bar Ban” laws in reducing gun violence near alcohol vendors. Social Science & Medicine.
with Diana Silver, Jin Yung Bae, Kevin Butler, Tanvi Shinkre, Falco J. Bargagli-Stoffi, and James Macinko
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The first national evaluation of "Bar Ban" laws; policies prohibiting firearms where alcohol is served. Drawing on 1.6 million alcohol vendors and 263,464 shooting incidents (2019–2025), we show that while shootings cluster near alcohol-serving establishments, these laws produce no detectable reduction in nearby gun violence.
with Peter Larson, Jason Goldstick, Sawyer Stibley, Jaemin Jeon, and Douglas Wiebe
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Using a case-crossover design and distributed lag models on 4,062 firearm discharge incidents in Detroit (2021–2025), we show that warmer conditions (especially warmer nights) are associated with higher odds of gunfire, while heavy precipitation lowers the odds over short windows. The findings point to weather-sensitive opportunity structures as a tool for anticipating short-term risk periods.
The Contribution of Alcohol to Violent Deaths in the United States, 2015-2022. Injury Epidemiology.
with Diana Silver and James Macinko
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This study of over 200k violent death decedents from 24 U.S. states (2015–2022) found that alcohol was involved in roughly 27% of all violent deaths, with firearms and alcohol co-occurring in 19% of homicides and 14% of suicides. Alcohol's role in violent death differs fundamentally by context, demographics, and geography.
2021
The Effect of State Gun Laws on Youth Suicide by Firearm: 1981-2017. Suicide and Life-Threatening Behavior.
With Richard Fording
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Child Access Prevention and minimum age laws reduce youth firearm suicides, with the strongest effects among males and in states with the strictest provisions, and no offsetting substitution toward other methods.
Just a Minor Infringement: How Florida’s Extreme Risk Protection Order Applies to At-Risk Youth and Other Household Members. Law and Psychology Review.
In Progress
Can Voters Connect Elections to Policy? (Job Market Paper).
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Do voters have the capacity to connect elections to policy implications? I show that when elections signal potential threats to policies people depend on, citizens adjust their behavior to hedge against the possible erosion of rights that they value. Using administrative records on 500 million firearm background checks and a novel dataset of nearly 11 million marriages across the United States, I find that when a party associated with restricting a valued right wins the presidency, people lock-in access before new restrictions arrive. People buy guns to preempt restrictions associated with Democratic administrations; same-sex couples marry before a conservative government can rescind protections for marriage equality. Political expectations, absent as-yet realized policy change, are sufficient to drive costly, measurable behavior. These findings suggest policy is an important part of how voters interpret elections.
with Haotian Chen
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Estimating the latent gun-policy positions of 14,585 state legislators from roll-call votes (2011–2022), we find that mass shootings within a legislator's own district do not measurably shift how they vote on firearms-related bills. This null holds across partisanship, geographic proximity, and shooting severity, suggesting even acute, locally salient tragedies fail to move legislative voting behavior.
Between a Rock and a Polarized Place: How Lawmakers Absorb Pressure Without Taking Positions (Pre-Print).
with Haotian Chen, G. Agustin Markarian, and Amanda Mauri
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Analyzing 2.7 million tweets from 961 state legislators across 25 mass shootings (2013–2022) with large language models, we find that the odds of tweeting about gun violence surge 572% after an in-state shooting, but legislators turn to expressive rhetoric rather than substantive policy debate. We introduce the theory of "salience absorption" and find it most pronounced among Republican legislators and those in the most competitive districts, revealing how elites use symbolic communication to absorb the pressure to "say something" while avoiding policy commitment.
Down and Across the Aisle: How Does Marriage Affect Partisanship?
with Maria Arzumanov
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Can marriage change political partisanship? This project asks whether party identification is a stable identity or can shift through sustained exposure to a politically different spouse. Using Florida marriage records linked to voter registration and turnout histories, we distinguish between partisan sorting into marriage and genuine partisan convergence after marriage.
The Heller Effect: How Expanding the Second Amendment Increased Handgun Purchasing.
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How do landmark court decisions shape behavior? This project examines the effects of the Supreme Court’s 2008 District of Columbia v. Heller decision, which established an individual right to keep and bear arms under the Second Amendment. Using administrative data on firearm background checks, I study whether a major constitutional ruling translated into changes in legal handgun purchasing.